Wednesday, April 29, 2009

International Test Rugby This Weekend 2 May

Russia v Germany in Hannover (WCQ Euro.R5; ENC 1)
Hong Kong v Japan in Hong Kong (Asia5Nations)
Kazakhstan v Korea in Almaty (Asia5Nations)
Uruguay v Chile in Montevideo (WCQ Am.R2; CONSUR A Prelim.)
Brazil v Paraguay in Montevideo (CONSUR A Preliminary)
Croatia v Sweden in Split (WCQ Euro. R3; ENC 2B)
Lithuania v Serbia in Vilnius (WCQ Euro.R2; ENC 3A)
Israel v Finland in Netanya (WCQ Europe R1; ENC 3C)


  1. Gary, do you know definitively whether Armenia will be allowed to advance out of this pool or not? If they are, a draw in this weekend's 3A game would give us a bizarre situation where Serbia would be in first place but eliminated (due to FIRA's silly point system).

  2. Hi Alan

    I can't find anywhere on the IRB website that inicates Armenia is inelligible to qualify. I have worked out on paper the 12 possible scenarios for the next two games, and in 3 of those scenarios Armenia could qualify. That's only as far as I am aware.

  3. 12 scenarios? I can only count 9. Lithuania wins, loses, or draws (3) times Lithuania wins, loses, or draws (9).

    Of these scenarios, Lithuania wins 4x, Armenia 3, and Serbia 2. (How likely each scenario - two draws? - is is another story.)

  4. Ah, yes, there are 9 scenarios after the Lithuania v Serbia match. In my claculations I also included the 3 possible point table situations after win, win, draw following that match. Of the 9 scenarios I have Armenia wins 3, Lithuania 4 and Serbia 2. So I guess that makes Lithuania a slight favourite to take this pool. But any one of the three could do it.

  5. Well, the number of scenarios that favors a team has to be weighed along with the likelihood of the various scenarios.

    Ok, so now that Lithuania won, who do you like next week? Lithuania had a better win against Switzerland, but probably not very meaningfully so. They both beat Serbia (clearly the next best team) by 41 - and I believe a shutout makes Armenia's win much more impressive.

    On the other hand, Armenia really blew it against Andorra. And Lithuania has some momentum.