INTERNATIONAL RUGBY TESTS AHEAD: 4 and 5 February 2011

04.02.2011
England v Wales in Cardiff (Six Nations)

05.02.2011
Ireland v Italy in Rome (Six Nations)
Scotland v France in Paris (Six Nations)
Russia v Spain in Madrid (ENC 1A)
Romania v Portugal in Lisbon (ENC 1A)
Georgia v Ukraine in Tblissi (ENC 1A)

2011 Rugby World Cup: The Examination-Pool A

The Rugby World Cup 2011 is only seven months away. This is the fourth article in an examination of the four pools and twenty teams that will contest the 2011 Rugby World Cup, to be held in New Zealand.

Pool A
New Zealand
France
Tonga
Canada
Japan

Certainties
Both New Zealand and France will progress to the quarter-finals. Tonga, Canada and Japan wont.

New Zealand
This tournament is probably New Zealand's biggest challenge in their long rugby history. Since they won the first Rugby World Cup in 1987, winning this Trophy has turned into a nightmare for this rugby-mad nation. With each failed attempt captains have vanished, players sacked, management lynched (not really), and coaches given marching orders. The shame and disappointment for the nation. To be the leading rugby nation of the world at to not win the Cup has been more than the average Kiwi fan can bare. So much is hinging on winning this tournament. There really can be no excuses.

After New Zealand were bundled out of the 2007 Rugby World Cup the NZRFU took the unusual step of not sacking either the captain nor the coach. Richie McCaw and Graham Henry were retained to take the team to the 2011 Rugby World Cup. For once the nation took the disappointment calmly with the gritty determination, "wait to you's all come here in 2011!". And so the expectation has grown so that there is just nowhere for the team, the coach and management to go but up-or out. Losing the Cup at home is simply unthinkable. So how has the team being doing and what can we expect September through to November 2011?

The team is going well. They won the Tri Nations tournament in 2010 causing the World Cup Champions South Africa to flounder last. They dropped a Bledisloe Cup in Hong Kong to Australia (blip on radar) but then cruised through their November tour of Europe with relative ease. The All Blacks displayed a ruthless approach to the game, solid on defence, capitalising on opposition errors, cutting through backlines with skill and ease. It all looked so simple and straight forward. And that is how New Zealand is playing its rugby. Ruthless and clinical. At their best simply unstoppable and irresistible. It doesn't seem to matter which combination they use. Their 'B' side can win tests as well. The team has a solid, skilful all round look. Where are the weaknesses?

Without Daniel Carter they slip just under excellent with less control and authority close to the scrum. Without Richie McCaw the forwards are slightly less effective. These two guys are the cement that really binds this team together. If New Zealand were to lose these two through injury, the cracks may well appear. If the opposition can shut both of them down then it may be a different game.

New Zealand will be thankful that France is in their pool. The French will provide a very stern test for the New Zealanders. In past tournaments the Kiwis have brushed opponents aside in the pool stages to stumble in the quarters, the semis or even the final. So NZ will progress even if, heaven forbid, they fall to the French at an early hurdle. After that? We'll have to wait and see.

France
France has a proud rugby tradition. Known as team unpredictable, they can be awful one test, brilliant the next. Not even the French players know which one it will be prior to a match. I just love watching the French play. At their best they can win against any team. Forwards inter passing the ball from hand-to-hand with the skill and pace of backs, backs who can attack from well inside their half and when they do this together as a team watch out. When they have their heads down or simply can't/wont/don't play with that flair and authority, they can be rolled.

France and New Zealand have a special relationship when it comes to the Rugby World Cup. France lost 9-29 to New Zealand in the first Rugby World Cup final, 1987. The next time they faced each other was at the 1999 Rugby World Cup. New Zealand had bolted away from the other teams in its pool and faced France in the Semi-Final. After building a handy half time lead New Zealand were expected to continue to dominate and roll the French in the second half.Instead France turned on an absolutely magical display to defeat New Zealand 43-31, a result that haunts New Zealanders to this day. In 2003 New Zealand defeated France easily in a 3rd-4th playoff. In 2007 France repeated their 1999 high jinks by knocked the Kiwis out of the tournament, this time at the quarter-final stage. Another nightmare for New Zealand. France went on to lose to England in the semi-final.

Australia showed the world just how to upset the rhythm of a French team. On 27 November 2011 Australia, against the odds, ran all over a French team that lacked ideas, passion and skill. Australia won 59-16! Now what that means is look out the next team that plays France. Rarely do they play poorly twice. When they do have a poor game they are usually all over the next team. That means watch out Scotland come February 5th!

France needs to rebuild their team in 2011 and it has to start in the 6 Nations Championship, beginning February 4th. They need to either win the Championship or come a close second. Then they need to perform well in the warm up games. Hey! What am I saying. France could play poorly in all those games and still do well at the Rugby World Cup. They certainly need to find some body who can direct their backline and a pack of forwards who can win the ball and do something magical with it. We will have to see.

Apart from New Zealand I can't see any other team in this pool worrying the French too much.

Tonga
In reviewing Pool D I commented on the difficulties that Pacific Island nations have selecting their teams. Only at the time of the Rugby World Cup can these nations have their players long enough to build team work and put the strength and natural skills of these players into a cohesive unit. Tonga fits this scenario just as well as Samoa and Fiji.

Tonga has had its share of successes without ever progressing past the pool stages. In1999 they defeated Italy but then leaked over a hundred points to England in the next game. In 2003 they come within 7 points of Wales in pool play and in 2007 defeated both the USA and island neighbour Samoa but were pushed out of finals contention by England and South Africa.This all points to a gradual maturing of players as they ply their trade in mostly European clubs, better coaching and developing close-knit team spirit so typical of Pacific Island teams.

In 2010 Tonga lost all their Pacific Nation Cup rugby tests against Neighbours Samoa and Fiji, and to Japan. In November they toured Europe playing 'A' sides from 6 Nations countries. That form is not encouraging. Tonga has the 2011 Pacific Nations Cup matches to build towards the Rugby World Cup. It is hoped that they can call upon all the European-based players for that tournament, and then retain them for crucial build up matches before the Cup. If this can happen Tonga could defeat Canada and Japan, and hopefully give New Zealand a fright in the World Cup opening match (what an honour for Tonga who will be supported by a huge Tongan population in Auckland) and shake a few French bones with their typical no-holds-barred island style tackling. It wont be enough however to see the Tongan progress.

Canada
Canada qualified for this Rugby World Cup by being the top America's qualifying team. In recent years they have dominated their southern neighbour the United States. Under New Zealand coach Kieran Crowley the Canadians have developed into a team worthy of a place at the World Cup. Whether they can progress further is doubtful.

Canada has participated in every Rugby World Cup since the first in 1987. They won their first ever World Cup match defeating Tonga 37-4. In 1991 they reached the quarter finals, losing honourably to New Zealand 13-29. In 1995 they defeated Romania but did not progress. In 1999 they defeated Namibia and put up a grand fight against the French but again did not go further. In 2003 their only win was over Tonga whilst 2007 was a disappointment as they manage a 12-12 draw with japan and that was it. So traditionally the Canadians have an edge over Tonga and perhaps a slight one over Japan but wins over those two nations will be about as much as can be expected.

Japan
Former New Zealand rugby test player and all time great winger John Kirwan has been guiding Japan for the last few years. In 2010 he has established Japan as a most promising rising power in world rugby, certainly totally dominating Asian rugby. After easily accounting for their Asian rivals Japan lost 8-22 to Fiji although defeating eventual cup winner Samoa 31-23. Later in October they crashed 10-13 to a virtual Samoan second XV before walking all over Rugby World Cup newcomers Russia by a crushing 75-3. Unpredictable? Certainly. Capable of upsetting France and New Zealand. Certainly not.

Japan is taking theirr preparations for the World Cup seriously. Whilst its Asia Five Nations Cup rivals wont provide more than training runs, the Japanes have more serious opponents in the World Cp warm up games; playing Italy and then the United States.

At best they could defeated Tonga and Canada but they will hopefully provide some stiff opposition to the French and New Zealanders without being a real threat. Japan still has a long way to go before it can match it with the big teams in world rugby.

2011 Rugby World Cup: The Examination-Pool B

This article, the third, continues the examination of the rugby nations who will attend the 2011 Rugby World Cup; their performances in 2010 and how they might do in their pool.

Pool B
Argentina
England
Scotland
Georgia
Romania

The certainty
There is only one. England will make the quarter final stage. The other position is up for grabs.

England
The only certain thing is that England will win this pool and progress. Even at their poorest they are probably too good for the others. The real excitement for England will begin after the pool stages.

On recent displays England look to be coming right. It's been a long time since that fantastic day in 2003 when England won the Web Ellis Cup for the first time. England have been mainly ordinary from that time onwards and sometimes just dreadful. They have been guilty of squandering hard-won possession. They have always had a pack of forwards who have been able to out-muscle most of the opposition. But once the ball is out England has been predictable and unimaginative behind the scrum. Even the likes of the great Jonny Wilkinson has not been able to ignite the backline.

But in November 2010 they began to play better rugby and winning rugby. Some new blood in that backline has done wonders. Players like Benjamin Foden and Ben Youngs have suddenly sparked the England back line into life. Tobias Flood is beginning to play with authority. The forward pack has been formidable. It is an ageing pack but what did they call England's side in 2003? Dads army. Well, Dad's army is back.

In the November tests of 2010 England lost to both New Zealand and South Africa at Twickenham but against Australia they dominated and won through the back line. It is all starting to look good for England and for once Martin Johnson can smile.

England will have to either win the 6 Nations Championship or come close for all the good work to continue. They will also need to clean out the opposition in the warm-up tests before the World Cup and then the fun begins. Argentina will be back to their best in time for this tournament and England will have to work hard to defeat them. Scotland will have something special just for England and don't write off Georgia and Romania either. But England should come through this pool undefeated.

Argentina
Argentina were the dream team at the 2007 Rugby World Cup in France. They defeated France in the opening game and again at the end to take third place. What a wonderful tournament they had. But since then things have not gone well for the Pumas. They have won only six test matches out of the eighteen played since 2007. They defeated England at Salta in 2009 and France again in Buenos Aires last June. That has been all.

Their three tests last November in Europe were not memorable. Their 9-29 loss to Ireland in Dublin was most alarming. This Argentine side simply is not firing. The team lacks authority and direction from behind the scrum whilst the forwards are dominating like they used to.

So where to from here. The Pumas get better the more time they can spend together. They will get this time leading up to the World Cup and with their leading players mostly playing at the top level in both France and England, the standard of play should be up there with the best. It's just a worry that the personal are not the quality of that wonderful 2007 team. We shall see.

Argentina at their best could defeat England but next September I don't think they will. Argentina will have a real battle to overcome Scotland as well but they could do it. Both Georgia and Romania could upset Argentina but only if Argentina run into a bad trot. I can't see that happening. The crucial game will be Argentina v Scotland.

Scotland
Scotland has a proud rugby history. The results may not always indicate a team at the top level of world rugby, but Scotland can produce surprises. They lost narrowly to England 6-9 in the 1991 Rugby World Cup semi-final but that is as close as they have got in the finals. They just don't seem to win the crucial game in their pool. And they have a number of crucial games to win if they want to proceed.

Since the 2007 Rugby World Cup in which they easily defeated Romania but lost to Argentina in the quarter finals, Scotland has, up to 2010, performed poorly. A new coach in 2009 saw them win against Australia but then lose to Argentina. 2010 was a much better season, 6 Nations Championship apart. Scotland became the first team to win a test series in Argentina for some time, last June. They were slaughtered by New Zealand in the opening November game, but then bounced back to defeat South Africa and win narrowly over Samoa. The new Zealand game apart, Scotland has begun to look like a good side.

Leading up the the Rugby World Cup in September next year Scotland has to do well in the 6 Nations Championship. A good win over England, a win over Italy and a win over either Wales or Scotland will give Scotland much needed confidence. This they must do. Then they need to defeat Ireland and Italy in their warm-up games in August and they should be ready to fire come September. They will need to be at their best to defeat Argentina and overcome the aspiring Georgians and Romanians.

Georgia
This country has a very rare feature as a European Nation. It is one of the only ones in which rugby is the number one football code. Nowhere else in Europe is the game of rugby so dominant. The Georgians love their rugby. They are also excellent wrestlers. So it comes as no surprise to learn that the Georgian scrum, with all their best France-based players available, is a formidable force to deal with. The record books show that the Georgian forwards score more tries than their backs. They are masters at scrum time and master at the rolling mauls. Their backs are better defenders than attackers although recently the Georgian back line is looking more skilful.

After a quiet entry into the Rugby World Cup in 2003, Georgia nearly caused a major upset in 2007 when they pushed Ireland hard before losing by only four points. That game woke the world up to these Georgians. It will go down as one of their greatest games in their short rugby history. In other competition they won the European Nations Cup in 2009 which gained then entry into the 2011 finals. They lost to Romania 10-22 last March which saw the Romanians take out the 2010 ENC although the Georgians defeated Russia 36-8 shortly afterwards. In November last year the Georgians defeated Canada 22-15 and the USA 19-17 at home and with their best team.

Like the Romanians and the Pacific Island teams, most of Georgia's top players play in French club rugby. This means not all of their top players are together long enough for combinations to work properly and for team spirit to develop. But being together for a month before the finals will bind these Georgians into a formidable team. They wont defeat England, they'll struggle against Scotland and probably lose to Argentina. They will firstly target Romania and then I think they will give Scotland one heck of a fright. Just what the World Cup needs

Romania
At the 2007 Rugby World Cup the Romanians were expected to do well. Instead they flopped. With a large number of the France-based players available this disappointment was hard to fathom. In 2008 a new coach basically sacked most of those France-based players are tried to build a team on local talent. That didn't work. In fact the Romanians played so poorly they came a disastrous third behind Georgia and Russia in the 2009 European Nations Cup..It was good news for the Russians but bad news for the Romanians. They would have to spend 2010 battling their way through playoffs to make the Rugby World Cup.

This they managed to do. Another new coach and back came a number of those experienced France-based players and Romania began to win games again. In fact they had to play a record thirteen test matches in 2010, losing only to Namibia who took the IRB Nations cup in Bucharest.They had to defeat Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Tunisia and finally Uruguay to become the last team to qualify for the Rugby World Cup finals. What a journey.

Romania must do well in the 2011 European Nations Cup, defeating both Georgia and Russia, to establish a good confidence base to take on the other teams in this pool. They must defeat Georgia and they have the potential to defeat Scotland. They will certainly be looking to do better than their efforts in 2007.

Tomorrow I'll examine Pool A

2011 Rugby World Cup: The Examination-Pool C

This is the second instalment of an examination of each nation in each pool at the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

Pool C
Australia
Ireland
Italy
Russia
United States

The Certainties
Australia will make the Quarter finals, Russia and the United States will not.

Australia
I'm picking this team to be a real danger at this World Cup. And it's not because I live here. My heart is with the All Blacks. Always has. Always will be. Australia hasn't got it right yet. The scrum is a nightmare but oh those backs. They carved the French up like a hot knife through butter. This is still a young side lacking some real leadership in the backs and grunt up front. They need players like Al Baxter and Sterling Mortlock just to shore things up, provide a solid scrum and guide the backline, especially in defence.

Australia's defeat of New Zealand in Hong Kong served as a warning and just prior to that they let the All Blacks get away with a one point victory in Sydney after leading for most of the match. If Australia can play consistently for 80 minutes and string those efforts over several games they will be a real threat. Just like they were against France in November. I can see them going through this pool undefeated.

The first thing Australia has to do is for their Super 15 sides to do well in the new competition.This will give those younger players more confidence in one of the toughest rugby competitions around. Next they have to brush aside Samoa in July and either win the Tri Nations or come a close second. That will set them up nicely. Even if they don't do well in all the above areas I wouldn't right them off. New Zealand beware!

Russia
It is fantastic to have new blood in a Rugby World Cup. It can get a little boring seeing the same old teams at this event. The newcomers can stir up a fair bit of interest. Russia is doing that right now getting acquainted with heartland New Zealand in the middle of the New Zealand summer, where they are in training and holding training matches. They won their first one last week 33-13 against a Taranaki Invitation XV. So they are doing all the right things but I'm picking they will win hearts but not matches come the World Cup.

Russia competes in the European Nations Cup first division, or Division A, which is the tier below the Six Nations Championship. They reached the Rugby World Cup finals by coming second in this competition over its two-season duration. Georgia won the competition and also qualified. The Russians pushed the Romanians into third place and forced them to go through a tough repechage process to qualify . But Russia got their on their 2008-09 performances not their 2009-10 ones. In the last season they drew with Romania 21-21 and lost 8-36 to Georgia on neutral ground in Turkey. During the summer of 2010 Russia went to the Churchill Cup in the United States. They lost to the United States 22-36, England Saxons 17-49 but defeated Uruguay 38-19 in the playoff. Not really startling results. They lost a two-test series against Argentina Jaguars (B team) at home in October and Then ended 2010 on a disastrous note by losing 3-75 to Japan in Tokyo in November. Not what the Russians were looking for!

So what does Russia have to do between now and September 2011? Firstly they have to lead the ENC Division A first round being played in February and March. That means defeating Spain away, Portugal at home, Romania in Bucharest, Ukraine away and then Georgia at home (although I'm sure this will be played on neutral soil again). I don't know what warm-up matches the Russians have got planned for August but they'll need to win those as well. If Russia can manage all that they have a slight but realistic chance of defeating the USA. Anything less and solid showings against the others in this pool is the best Russia can expect.

United States
The Americans will be targeting Russia of course as a win. And they should win. They have qualified for every Rugby World Cup since 1991 without ever causing more than the odd ripple. They defeated Japan 24-18 in 1987, again 39-26 in 2003 but that has been it. They'll be looking to push the Irish to a close game at best. They might even catch the Italians napping if the Azurri have a horror match. So they will be targeting the Italians as well. Realistically, a win over Russia is probably as much as The USA will do.

The USA came a long way towards recovery in 2010 after some ordinary years going back to 2003. From 2003 to 2009 the Americans only won a handful of games and constantly played second fiddle to their northern cousins the Canadians. They have always been billed as the nation with so much rugby potential. But this has not eventuated until perhaps 2010. In the Churchill Cup the USA began with a good 36-22 win over Russia and then played well against the England Saxons before losing 9-32. In the plate final they found France 'A' too much in the end losing 10-24. But throughout they performed with credit. In November they toured Europe. They defeated Portugal 22-17, lost 0-21 to Scotland 'A' with virtually their B side and then pushed the Georgians 17-19 in Tblissi. The Georgians fielded their strongest side and so this was a good showing by the USA.

Where to from here with the United States of America? It looks like the Churchill Cup is getting axed after this year. It will be held in England so the USA will be off to Europe probably in June to play test rugby. I'd be expecting them to play some other test matches as well. My man in Japan Ian McDonnell, tells me that a test match between USA and Japan pre World Cup is on the cards. The USA will need to get into the 2011 Churchill Cup final and win any other Pre World Cup games to be taken seriously beyond defeating Russia at the 2011 Rugby World Cup

Ireland
Ireland only need to play to form and they should comfortable account for Russia and the United States, with Italy being their main hurdle to get to the quarter finals. Ireland has an ageing team and like England in 2003, will be relying on their old hands to get them anywhere near a Rugby World Cup final. I just can't see that happening. Getting past the quarter finals is something Ireland has never done and in 2007 they took a step backwards by not getting past the pool stages for the first time since 1987.

Ireland has a number of younger players who are beginning to blend into this experienced side. Players like Keith Earls, Luke Fitzgerald, Jonathan Sexton, Cian Healy, Devin Toner and Sean Cronin are Ireland's players of the future. But for this campaign its going to be the O'Driscolls, the O'Garas. the O'Callaghans, the Hayes, the Stringers and the Wallaces who will be this sides strength.

The heady days of Ireland's 2009 6 Nations Grand Slam appear over. In the 2010 6 Nations Championship a repeat of 2009 ended with a 10-33 drubbing by France, but then Ireland won well against England and Wales before falling to Scotland at home. Oh the disgrace! Over summer Ireland dropped their test matches to New Zealand and Australia, but picked up a good 29-9 win over Argentina at the end of a fairly ordinary November test series. Losses to New Zealand and South Africa in Dublin are not the results the Irish fans want and it appears their 2011 Rugby World Cup chances are slipping away.

Ireland will need to do extremely well in this years 6 Nations Championship for Ireland to keep faith with some of their old hands. This is not the time to be blooding new players but unless Ireland can lift its game in this competition new players will have to be taken to the World Cup. Ireland has a four-match warm-up programme in July and August. They will need to perform well for the fans to give the Irish much hope of getting past the quarter finals stage.

Italy
For the Italians the Rugby World Cup has never been a happy hunting ground. They have never got passed the pool stages and in 2011 they will need to defeat Ireland to get there. Is that possible? It could happen. But Italy will need to pull a game from heaven out of the hat to do that.

Italy has a pack that is often second to none on the world international rugby scene. This is the strength of their game. But this strength is in the set pieces, the scrum. With ball in hand they are not that lethal. They just make life extremely unpleasant for the opposing forwards in the tight. Around the paddock they have probably the world's best number eight in Sergio Parisse but apart from him this is not an area of strength. The backline is Italy's weakness. Their isn't anybody who really stands out. All that possession won and nobody knows what to do with it and they have a brittle defence system. That I'm afraid is Italy at the moment.

Italy's performances in 2010 reflect the weaknesses. Wins against Scotland and Fiji is all Italy has to show for the last twelve months. Somehow they are going to have to improve their 6 Nations performances in 2010 and defeat Scotland and either Ireland or Wales for them to have any hope of threatening the Irish at the 2011 Rugby World Cup. They will need to win their warm-up matches and go into the World Cup with form and confidence if they are to make history. At this stage I can't see it happening.

Tomorrow I'll look at Pool B

2011 Rugby World Cup: The Pools-The Examination-Pool D

Over the next four days I will examine each pool at the 2011 Rugby World Cup and examine how each team stands at present and what might happen with that team between now and the Rugby World Cup, plus a possible outcome of results.

Pool D
South Africa
Wales
Fiji
Samoa
Namibia

The Certainties
On the face of it there can be two certainties. Firstly, South Africa will qualify for the quarter finals, and secondly, Namibia won't. Which leaves a mouth-watering situation in which Wales, Fiji and Samoa will slug it out for that quarter final spot.

South Africa
A degree of uncertainty has lingered over the 2007 Rugby World Cup champion since those heady days in which South Africa placed itself at the top of world international test rugby.

South Africa has lurched from Tri Nations winner in 2009 to Tri Nations wooden spoon in 2010. On their November European tour last year they went from losing to Scotland ( a week after New Zealand buried the Scots 49-3) to defeating England 21-11 squashing somewhat England's surge in form and optimism. Given the huge injury toll which meant a number of rookies made the tour, the tour record wasn't bad. But oh that game against Scotland.

On top of that South Africa has a coach equally unpredictable. Not popular amongst Springbox fans, De Villers retained his job after an investigation and position review by South Africa rugby. He will take the team to the Rugby World Cup. The fans will be counting on the return of some old hands to shore up the cracks and take the team to Rugby World Cup glory.

South Africa has a shortened Tri Nations tournament and some warm-up games to blend back in the old hands with some promising new rookies just in time to take on the world in New Zealand.

Namibia
Although they won't get past the pool stage of the tournament, Namibia may well cause a worry or two against Wales, Fiji and Samoa. In the past they've been cannon fodder for higher classed sides but they displayed some improvement at the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

Recent form has been up and down. Up, when they took out the IRB Nations Cup in Bucharest putting Romania and a below-strength Georgia to the sword. Down, when on their November tour they lost to Portugal and Spain who are below then on IRB and GWC rankings. There were excuses for the Namibian players as the tour was not a certainty until the last minute for financial reasons and not all top players were available.

Add to that the IRB are investigating the Namibian organisational structure after an internal spat which has sapped the moral of this fiercely proud rugby nation. With the organisation of Namibian rugby settled soon the players and administrators can focus on a huge task ahead. They won't win a game but I'm hoping they can continue to gain respect from the rugby community.

Namibia will be hoping that the 2011 Africa Cup wont be the disaster it was in 2010 in which both Namibia's pool stage was cancelled along with the finals. Namibia will need those tests along with some warm-up games to pull the team together. And lets hope the administration gets sorted.

Wales
Wales will need to defeat South Africa if they are to have a solid chance of making the quarter finals. I can't see that happening so Welsh fans will have to hope that history wont repeat itself. Wales has a habit of dropping crucial matches in the Pool stages, setbacks that has cost dearly.

In 2007 Fiji dumped the Welsh in a magnificent game of rugby that I use to show non believers just what this game is about. The result cost Wales a quarter final spot. In 1999 it was Samoa who bounced the Welsh, and in Cardiff mind you, but Wales made the quarters. Samoa also crunched the Welsh in 1991 (Cardiff again). Food for thought.

Wales displayed enough strength up front and skill in the backs to give New Zealand a bit of a fright in their November clash in Cardiff. This was promising as Wales has been on the brink of becoming a very good side despite some ups and downs during 2009-2010. In New Zealand their flowing back play will win fans but that style may come unstuck against both Fiji and Samoa who simply live to crunch darting, swerving fancy backs. I can't wait!

Wales will have the Six Nations as their first preparations. A better than good showing will be expected if they'll be taken seriously in New Zealand.

Fiji
If/when Fiji is able to put its strongest combination together they can play like they did against Wales in 2007. They can be a very difficult side to play against at their best because of the natural unorthodox way they play. The Rugby World Cup is about the only time the Pacific Island nations get all their top players together because European clubs, who most of the Islanders play for, simply must release players. In addition, its at Rugby World Cup time that the likes of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga have their top players for a decent length of time to build combinations.

So Fiji does well at Rugby World Cups. Or do they? Sadly the Pacific Island nations just do not have the depth to last a full Rugby World Cup tournament in which you are as good as your second side. This is where it becomes unravelled for the teams below the top ranked. Still, Fiji has made the quarter finals before (2007 and 1999) and could well do so again in New Zealand.

Fiji's record for 2010 was up and down. Up when they defeated Japan with virtually their second side at the Pacific Nations Cup and then down when Samoa defeated them convincingly at the same tournament. Up again when they drew with a dreadful Welsh effort in Cardiff ('Here we go again", I though I heard the Welsh crowd singing at Cardiff) and then down when they dropped the game against Italy.

Fiji will need to be convincing winners of the 2011 Pacific Nations Cup to go into the World Cup Finals confident of making the Quarter finals again, and put both Wales and Samoa to the sword.

Samoa
One might as well repeat the first two paragraphs of what I wrote about Fiji and just insert 'Samoa'. Because the Samoans are in exactly the same situation.

Samoa's record in 2010 was reasonably good. They took out the Pacific Nations Cup for the first time defeating both Japan and Fiji. They toured Europe in November with a strong side somewhat short of training time. They pushed Ireland, England and Scotland enough to suggest that at the Rugby World Cup they will be a threat to Fiji and Wales and will push both for that quarter final spot.

Predictions
South Africa plus any one of Wales, Fiji or Samoa to make the quarter finals. I'll go for Samoa.

2011 Rugby World Cup: The Pools

The 2011 Rugby World Cup Final will be staged in New Zealand. Following Romania's qualification on November 27, 2010, the final makeup of the pools are thus.

Pool A
New Zealand
France
Tonga
Canada
Japan

Pool B
Argentina
England
Scotland
Georgia
Romania

Pool C
Australia
Ireland
Italy
Russia
United States

Pool D
South Africa
Wales
Fiji
Samoa
Namibia